Can The Troika Pull a Rabbit Out of the Committee’s Hat?

Anyone have any idea how Governor Schwarzenegger, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and President Pro Tem Don Perata are going to pull this rabbit out of their hat?

The Senate Health Committee seems poised to defeat their troika’s health care reform package, Assembly Bill X1-1. The math is pretty straightforward:

There are seven Democrats and four Republicans on the committee. Two of the Democrats have announced their opposition to the bill and none of the Republicans have ever said anything indicating they’re supporting the bill. That means the bill fails five-to-six. And that assumes none of the other Democrats decides to vote against the bill.

Seems to me there’s only three ways to turn this around:

1. Stack the committee. It’s been done before. Replace a no vote with a yes-Senator. But Senator Perata told the San Jose Mercury News he won’t do this.

2. Get a Yes vote from one of the Democrats currently committed to voting No. Committee Chair Shiela Kuehl or Senator Leland Yee have both come out against the bill. In his opening statement to the committee, Senator Perata took a none too subtle swipe at Senator Yee in his prepared statement before the start of the Health Committee hearing. “I am a little dismayed that some committee members have seen fit, or maybe one committee member, is seeing fit to pre-judge the LAO’s report without reading it. Be that as it may, I guess we all approach our work in a different manner.” As means of persuading someone to change their minds on one of the most public and publicized decisions of their political career, this approach leaves something to be desired.

More likely is that Senator Perata, the Governor and Speaker will seek a courtesy vote from one of the Democrats. Their argument could be: 1) you’ll get to vote no on the floor of the Senate; 2) we’ll owe you big time; 3) you’ll keep your office; and 4) eventually the voters will decide if they like this health care reform — why would you stand in the way of letting the people decide? 

This last argument might — emphasis on the word “might” — work. ABX1-1 is entirely dependent on a funding measure passing on the November 2008 ballot. If the initiative fails, the bill never gets implemented. So moving the bill forward can be seen as simply giving the people a chance to make the final determination. Will either Senator Kuehl or Yee buy into this? That’s a big unknown.

3. Get a Republican to vote Yes. It’s worth a try. However, the most likely GOP Senator to buck the party is Senator Abel Maldonado. He was, after all, the only Republican Senator to support the 2007-08 budget during the 52-day standoff.

However, according to someone who was there, at a meeting with constituents on Friday, Senator Maldonado expressed concern about committing the state to substantial new expenses before the state’s $14 billion deficit is fixed. As the observer described it, Senator Maldonado explained that everything he knows from his own business experience and his commitment to being a responsible elected official points to a “No” vote on Monday.

OK, there’s a glimmer of a chance that the troika can find a courtesy vote. Or they can convince Senator Maldonado to listen to their financial analysis and not that of the non-partisan and highly respected Legislative Analyst. But it’s a long shot.

Nonetheless, some Sacramento insiders, even some opposed to the bill, are convinced they’ll pull it off. The Governor, Speaker and Senate Leader simply have too much invested in ABX1-1 to let it fail this close to the finish line.

I can’t figure out how they could do it. But if any of you have a guess — or better yet, inside information — please share with the class.