Health Care Reform 2009 Style

When it comes to health care reform 2009 has been an interesting year. And while comprehensive health care reform legislation will not be arriving on President Barack Obama’s desk this year, it is all but certain that will happen early in 2010. Getting to this penultimate moment has, to put it mildly, taken some doing. And the process says a lot about America and its leaders.

Health Care Reform Activity

President Obama had made clear throughout his campaign for the presidency that health care reform would be a top priority of his new administration. He lost no time making his promise real after his inauguration. Expansion of the State Children’s Health Insurance Plan, a proposal twice vetoed by then President George Bush, along with significant funding for medical technology, were a part of Administration’s economic stimulus package.

President Obama’s health care reform efforts took a serious blow in February when former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle was forced to withdraw his nomination as Secretary of Health and Human Services and as Director of the White House Office on Health Reform due to problems with his past tax returns. Senator Daschle is a political pragmatist who is highly regarded by lawmakers from both parties. Would the health care reform debate have been more civil had Senator Daschle led the White House reform effort? We’ll never know. What we do know is that civility quickly left the room as the House and Senate Committees with jurisdiction on the matter began their deliberations. The health care reform debate was passionate, raucous and partisan to the extreme. Neither party and no ideology is blameless for this descent into the dark side of politics. Both have benefited from it (although none as much as the 24 hour cable news channels) and both have sullied their standing with the public as a result.

Given what’s at stake when 1/6th of the nation’s economy is subjected to the legislative process, there may have been no avoiding an ugly health care reform debate. President Obama made clear in a speech in February that he wanted health care reform passed quickly. Many Republicans (and their talk show host allies) made it clear they’d rather see no health care reform rather than anything along the lines being proposed by – or that would politically benefit – President Obama. Meanwhile, the House Ways and Means, House Education and Labor and the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committees pushed through liberal bills; anchors on the left in anticipation of the negotiations to follow. The resulting climate promoted intense partisanship.

Eventually more conservative Democrats forced the House Energy and Commerce Committee to slow done and moderate the legislation, although what they passed would still be considered “liberal” by most definitions.  All the House bills passed out of the committees without a single Republican vote. Meanwhile Senator Max Baucus was trying to fashion legislation that might gain the support of at least three GOP members of the Senate Finance Committee. (He would eventually manage to get the support of only one GOP Senator).

The difficulty of finding common ground between liberals and conservatives on health care reform was made abundantly clear during the summer of 2009. The disruption of lawmaker’s town hall meetings were reminiscent of the anti-Viet Nam War protests of the 1960’s. (I suppose it’s ironic that many of those shutting down the town hall meetings had participated in the anti-war protests more than 40 years earlier). The passion and concern of the health care reform protests were as sincere as some of the rhetoric and actions were unfortunate and despicable (death threats and swastikas are inherently contemptible and disgraceful). The protests did assure, however, that Republicans would remain united against the kind of reforms being pushed by the Administration.

Reform was being pushed by the White House even if the Administration was declining to define reform. Instead the White House broadly described the key elements they’d like to see in a reform bill. President Obama’s three core principles for health care reform called for reducing costs, guaranteeing choice and ensuring quality care for all. He would later add other conditions (e.g., reform could not add to the deficit), but the details of the bill were being hashed out in Congress by Democratic lawmakers. The result, much to the chagrin of liberals, was that over time the legislation became increasingly moderate culminating in the legislation passed out of the Senate Finance Committee with the support of only one Republican, Senator Olympia Snowe.

With all the committees of jurisdiction having staked out their positions it was time for Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to pull together the pieces into bills that could pass their respective chambers. Speaker Pelosi succeeded first with the House passing a health care reform in November. The price of passage was high: liberals had to accept language dealing with abortions that sparked outrage in the pro-choice community.  It took the Senate more than a month to follow suit, but eventually they did. Now it’s up to a conference committee to pull the pieces together into one bill that can pass both the House and the Senate. Not an easy task, but with the finish line in sight it’s very doubtful lawmakers will falter now.

The Public Policy Dimension

While the activity swirling around health care reform has been … interesting, the evolution of the substance of the legislation has been even more fascinating. Not all that long ago liberal lawmakers were claiming a health care reform bill lacking a government-run health plan was no health care reform at all. They seemed to believe that a public health plan was the magic wand that would remake America’s health care system into something fair, competitive and wonderful. Or maybe they just thought the public option was a way station on the path to their promised land: a single payer system. While the House bill would create a new government health plan, the Senate legislation rejected the public option. While liberals outside of Congress continue to attack reform without a public option, liberals lawmakers seem to accept the inevitable. What emerges from the conference committee will no doubt lack a public option and liberal lawmakers will still support the reform package.

While liberals were losing a public option an unlikely coalition of conservatives and liberals were also watering down a requirement that all Americans purchase coverage. Conservatives dislike the idea as a restriction on the freedom of people to have their health care reform subsidized by higher health insurance premiums for everyone else. Liberals don’t like it because, apparently, the result is a windfall for evil health insurance companies. (OK, they offer more substantive public policy arguments against the individual mandate, but the rhetoric focuses on freedom and windfalls). Never mind that requiring health plans to sell coverage without requiring individuals to buy coverage before they incur claims is a recipe for higher insurance costs or that many states require drivers to buy auto insurance. As the legislation has moved through Congress the penalty for failing to purchase coverage has drifted toward a slap on the wrist end of the spectrum.

Other issues have taken interesting turns as well. Reimbursing doctors for counseling to seniors concerning living wills and the like was removed from the bill once the discussions were labeled “death panels.” What taxes will be imposed to pay for health care reform is still uncertain. Anti-abortion advocates have done a masterful job of inserting abortion into the debate. Both the House and Senate bills contained provisions that could “bend the cost curve” (which is apparently the new articulation of what was once called cost containment). If all the cost cutting provisions in the current bills were moved into separate legislation it would actually look like a serious effort. Mixed in with the health insurance reform dominating the current versions, however, the provisions appear weak and almost an afterthought.

Health Care Reform 2009: The Human Factor

So what to make of health care reform 2009 style?

First, that the legislative process is messy and can be downright uninspiring. Second, that tackling an issue as important and complicated as health care reform cannot overcome the need for partisans of both parties to put aside the public good for their political stratagems. Third, that the health care reform package that finally passes will be far more moderate than might have been apparent earlier this year. Fourth, criticism that Congress is moving too fast on reform are really complaints that Congress is not doing what critics leveling this charge want them to do. The health care reform bill that will find its way to President Obama’s desk in 2010 will be over a year in the making. Longer if you count the debate on health care held during the 2008 presidential election. Longer still if you include the previous health care reform efforts undertaken over the past several decades.

We elect politicians to hold office because they promise to address problems. No one has ever won a campaign on the promise to do nothing if elected. In 2008 Democrats won, and won handily, in part on a promise to solve the problems posed by America’s current health care system. They are fulfilling that promise. In the process they will create new problems.

Because the fact is we humans rarely solve problems. Instead we tend to replace existing problems with new ones. And if the 2009 health care reform process has taught us anything, it’s that the people who make up the Administration and Congress (and the general public) are only human. Anyone looking at the health care reform package emerging from Congress would find evidence of that reality.

For Better or Worse, Senate Makes Health Care Reform History

What ultimately prevailed was the realization it was now or never. The Senate passed health care reform legislation – a package that few considered ideal, but that Democrats determined was better than the status quo. This was a historical vote – the first time both the House and Senate have passed comprehensive, near-universal health care reform bill. Nonetheless,  Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid summed up the meaning of the event saying “This morning isn’t the end of the process, it’s merely the beginning. We’ll continue to build on this success to improve our health system even more. But the process cannot begin unless we start today … there may not be a next time.”

The legislation has come a long way since earlier in the year when the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee approved far more liberal legislation. As anticipated, moderate Democrats forced a host of changes to the health care reform bill, much to the chagrin of liberals. Now a conference committee will be tasked with merging the Senate version of reform with legislation passed by the House in November.

While the House and Senate bills have much in commons, there are some controversial differences. (For those seeking a more thorough comparison of the two bills I recommend the Kaiser Family Foundation Side-by-Side Comparison).  Given that these differences touch on issues such as taxes, abortion and a government-run health plan, there will be plenty of fodder the cable news networks can use to prevent their commercials from jamming together.

Whatever health care reform bill ultimately emerges from the conference committee it will a product of the Democratic party. Republicans were unanimous in their opposition to HR 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. That is unlikely to change moving forward. This reflects both ideology and a political calculation. While Democrats reached the high water mark of their majority in the 2008 election (meaning they were going to lose seats in 2010 regardless of what happened with health care reform), whether the GOP’s political calculation pays off in the long run will be determined by how independent, moderate voters perceive the health care reform package not in 2010, but in 2012 and beyond. For that verdict we’ll have to wait. In the meantime, for better or for worse, history was made this morning in the United States Senate.

Harry Reid’s Health Care Reform Dilemma: The Myth of the 60th Democratic Senator

If asked even two weeks ago I’d have said there was an 80 percent change or greater that meaningful health care reform would be signed into law this year. Now, however, I think the chances of such an outcome are far lower – still substantial – but much less likely.

One reason meaningful health care reform may not reach President Barack Obama’s desk this year is that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is having difficulties in lining up the 60 votes necessary to overcome the inevitable filibuster from Republicans. Senator Reid’s problem is that while there are 60 Senators in his caucus, there are really only 59 Democrats plus Senator Joe Lieberman.

Senator Lieberman caucuses with the Democrats because he used to be one (he won re-election as an Independent in 2006) and he wants to be a Committee Chair (he chairs the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee). However, he campaigned strongly for Senator John McCain in the 2008 presidential campaign, even addressing the Republican National Convention. Senator Lieberman also has said he expects to campaign for Republican candidates in 2010. It doesn’t take much insight to predict that, were Republicans to gain a majority in the Senate, Senator Lieberman would be knocking on their door for admittance.

Senator Lieberman has pledged to support a filibuster of a health care reform bill that includes a public option.  While he recently seems to have backed off this threat, as Timothy Noah on Slate.com points out, the Senator’s position on health care reform has been … well, let’s call it a bit erratic. So let’s say Senator Reid puts forward a bill that Senator Lieberman can support, does that solve his problem?

Hardly. Remember Senator Roland Burris, he of the controversial appointment to the Senate by then-Governor Rod Blagojevich. Senator Burris is threatening to oppose any health care reform bill that does not include the public option. As Senator Rollins is a bit of pariah in the Senate (many of its members, including his fellow Senator from Illinois, having called for him to resign) the Democratic leadership has little influence over his actions. So Harry Reid is in a bit of a no-win situation. Go after Senator Lieberman’s vote and he risks losing Senator Burris’ support. Accommodate Senator Burris and there goes Senator Lieberman.

Meanwhile, Senator Reid is forced to wait for an analysis of his proposal by the Congressional Budget Office. What they have to say about his efforts to blend the Senate Finance Committee and Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee’s differing versions of health care reform will greatly impact the votes of moderate Democrats. Since only one Republican vote, that of Senator Olympia Snowe, seems to be in play, those moderate Democrats hold the key to whether the Senate can muster the votes for health care reform.

Given that the debate in the Senate will be long, slogging through the legislation will take quite some time. While Senator Reid would like to get a bill on the president’s desk before Christmas, this is a present that may need to wait for the new year. That, of course, complicates matters considerably as 2010 is an election year. Lawmakers hate doing controversial things in an even numbered year. (Why the difference between December 2009 and January 2010 makes a difference is one of those unanswerable questions that seem to be especially common within the Beltway).

On paper, Democrats have a 60-vote majority in the Senate. That’s a myth. In reality they have a group of 60 Senators who caucus together, but don’t act together. That’s actually good for democracy (the unanimity within the Republican caucuses in Congress demonstrates stronger party unity, but a lack of individuality that is somewhat startling). But the diversity within the caucus makes being Majority Leader a lot harder.

Senator Reid Attempts to Find Middle Ground on Public Option

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s challenge was to blend the liberal Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions health care reform legislation with the more moderate bill passed by the Senate Finance Committee. One of the most contentious issues concerned the creation of a public insurance plan to compete with private carriers — the Senate HELP Committee called for one; the Senate Finance Committee explicitly rejected the concept.

The problem for Senator Reid was that some members of his caucus were threatening to oppose a bill without a government-run plan while others were making the same threat if the legislation included such a provision. And Senator Reid’s number one priority was to find a compromise that could garner the 60 votes needed to pass a bill in the Senate.

His decision:  include a public option in the blended health care reform legislation he will be bringing to the Senate floor in the next few weeks, but include restrictions on it that, while appealing to moderates, are not enough to turn off liberals.

The legislation is being reviewed by the Congressional Budget Office and is not yet available online. But Senator Reid has announced he will allow states to opt out of participating in the public plan. This approach is very appealing to moderate Democrats such as Senator Tom Carper, who voted against one of the attempts to add a government plan to the Senate Finance bill. According to the National Underwriter, Senator Carper “has been a key advocate of letting states opt out of the public option health program and create their own alternatives to private plans.”

Not all moderates in the Senate are embracing the compromise yet. The Associated Press quote Senators Olympia Snowe, Ben Nelson and  Mary Landrieu as all expressing various levels of skepticism. But the White House is on-board with the compromise and will likely bring a great deal of pressure on these moderates to get at least vote in favor of ending the inevitable Republican filibuster on the health care reform legislation. By including an opt-out, these moderates can support the procedural movement and claim they were putting state rights above their opposition to the public option.

The other provision Senator Reid has apparently included in his compromise is that, in the words of Senate Charles Schumer as quoted in the National Underwriter article, “Any public option plan ought to operate on a level playing field with private insurers, and it ought to meet the same state requirements and use similar provider rates.”

How this limitation would be imposed on a government-run plan is, as yet, unknown. But if the public option must play by state-specific rules, it would be a step toward a more level playing field between the public option and private carriers — and certainly closer to the level playing field than is contemplated in the House version of health care reform.

What’s ironic is that, as I’ve written previously, a public option is likely to accomplish its primary public policy goal — reduce medical costs — only if it is allowed advantages in the marketplace such as the power to unilaterally impose reimbursement rates on providers. By restricting it to the same rules and pricing regulations as private carriers might meet, its effectiveness is reduced.

Whether a public health insurance option is part of the reform legislation eventually passed by Congress is far from certain. But Senator Reid’s proposed compromises keeps the possibility alive. At the same time, the restrictions he’s suggesting reduces the impact of the government plan. That’s a reality liberals will not accept willingly.

Senator Reid is doing what Majority Leaders have to do: find the middle ground that can garner the support of 60 Senators. It’s not an easy task. Nor will the result please everyone. It might even please no one.

 

It’s Time for President Obama to Define Health Care Reform

Now comes the fun part. With the Senate Finance Committee poised to pass its version of comprehensive health care reform we get to one of the more difficult segments of the Kabuki dance: Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid must now reconcile the bills passed by multiple committees into a blended proposal. Which means the time is right for President Barack Obama to publicly define what, exactly, is “Obamacare”.

First some background. In the House, different versions of health care reform legislation have been passed by the House Ways & Means, Energy & Commerce, and Education & Labor committees. To be more precise, while the legislation moved forward by Ways & Means and Education & Labor were very similar, moderate Democratic members on the Energy & Commerce committee gained significant changes in that committee’s version. Speaker Pelosi will now combine the three versions into a “Manger’s Bill.” This is the version that will be debated and voted upon by the full House.

What’s makes Speaker Pelosi’s mash-up of the House Committee’s health care reform bills important is that any changes must be imposed upon it. Her version of the bill is the “default” position. From a legislative process perspective, this puts those seeking changes to the legislative language at a disadvantage.

The same blending process is underway in the Senate. There the task is even harder. The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee passed a liberal version of health care reform; the Senate Finance Committee’s plan is much more moderate. The gap between them is far greater than that between the three House committee’s bills. The Associated Press describes Senator Reid’s efforts to blend two disparate health care reform bills as “mission seemingly impossible.” Given the differences in the how the two Committees addressed costs, taxes, whether there should be a government-run plan, the obligation of employers to provide coverage and other controversial items, “seemingly impossible” may be an understatement.

Unless President Obama dives deeper into the details than has publicly been the case. The White House has been engaged in Congressional health care reform negotiations for some time. According to news reports, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, formerly part of the House Leadership, has been the Administration’s point person in these discussions. Until recently, President Obama has been willing to let Congress thrash out the thorny issues related to health care reform, setting forth broad principles. Beginning last month the president has offered more specifics, but hardly enough to clearly define what his version of health care reform looks like. At least not publicly.

With all the Congressional committees having taken a position, the time has come to get specific. Yes, the White House could leave it to Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to fashion compromises that can pass their respective chambers, but that only postpones the Administration’s day of reckoning. For after the House and Senate passes their differing versions of reform, a conference committee (made up of both Senators and Representatives) will convene to fashion the final bill. If President Obama waits until the conference committee convenes to publicly engage in the nitty-gritty of reform, it could be too late. Legislators will have been forced to make numerous politically challenging votes. The political payback if the White House then makes those votes unnecessary would be … ugly.

President Obama needs to make his health care reform vision known now, before those votes. He needs to say “this is acceptable;” “this is not.”  He needs to spend his political capital to define Obamacare, to give lawmakers the cover they need to make tough votes, and to rally his considerable grassroots organization behind specific legislation.

Publicly defining what he wants in the bill is a huge political risk for President Obama. His positions will anger some supporters and give opponents mounds of ammunition to use against him. Whatever changes Congress makes to the president’s reform plan will be described by the jabbering cable network pundits as a defeat for the Administration. If he accepts those changes he’ll be accused of weakness and flip-flopping. (One of the most insightful columnists around, Richard Reeves recently explained the value and wisdom of political leaders capable of changing their minds).

But the greater risk to the Administration is failing to achieve meaningful health care reform. And if health care reform does pass, the messiness of the process will be soon forgotten. The odds of President Obama getting a health care reform bill sent to his desk increases exponentially if Congress – and the public – have a clear understanding of the Administration’s legislative ambitions.

The policy and political pieces are all on the table. Selecting from among the various provisions contained in the five variations of health care reform passed by Congressional committees won’t be an easy, but it is necessary. President Obama wanted Congress to participate in the reform process. They have. Now it’s his turn.

Cantwell Amendment Another Handoff to States

As the Senate Finance Committee concludes its mark-up of health care reform legislation an interesting dynamic is emerging: Senators are increasingly turning to the states to address some of the more pressing challenges the reform effort is designed to address.

Yesterday I wrote about a compromise being circulated by moderate Senator Tom Carper. The Carper Compromise would allow states to create government-run insurance programs, networks of co-ops or the like. That proposal has yet to be brought to the Senate Finance Committee and may not be. Instead, it could be offered later in the process as the Senate seeks to bridge the gap between the Finance Committee’s bill and legislation passed by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee – which calls for a robust government-run plan.

Meanwhile, the Senate Finance Committee has adopted a proposal offered by Senator Maria Cantwell. which gives states the option “to negotiate with insurance companies for lower rates on health coverage policies for those living barely above the poverty line and provides federal dollars to pay for it,” according to the McClatchy news service. The Cantwell Amendment is modeled after a program currently in operation in Senator Cantwell’s home state of Washington and would benefit families between 133 percent and 200 percent of the Federal Poverty Level (up to $21,660 for individuals and $44,100 for a family of four). Senator Cantwell staff claims such plans could cover up to 30 million of the nation’s uninsured according to the Associated Press. This, of course, assumes that state’s out-reach efforts are successful in bringing those eligible for such a program into the system. There are millions of individuals eligible for existing programs like Medicaid and children health programs who remain unenrolled across the country.

Senator Cantwell’s amendment is not an alternative to the public option, the issue most dramatically dividing Democratic liberals from their moderate and conservative colleagues in Congress. Bridging that gap will require something along the lines of the Carper Compromise. (This doesn’t mean Senator Cantwell’s proposal wasn’t controversial. It was adopted on a 12-11 vote with Democrat Blanche Lincoln joining all 10 Republican members of the panel in voting against it).  What inclusion of the Cantwell Amendment in the Senate Finance Committee’s legislation does underscore is the likelihood Congress will be giving states a central role to play in making health care reform real.

The benefits of this approach include keeping health care decisions closer to consumers and allowing for different approaches to meet the differing needs of the states. One of the downsides to relying on states, however, is that it eliminates savings that might have been achieved by more uniform, national standards and regulations.

Another outcome of shifting responsibility and power to the states under health care reform: even after Congress completes its work, intense legislative battles will remain. Only the venue will move from Washington, D.C. to a state capital near you.

Senate Finance Committee Rejects Government-run Health Insurance Plan

The Senate Finance Committee continues to refine its health care reform legislation. Today it broke ranks with other Congressional committees with jurisdiction over health care reform by defeating amendments to create a government-run health plan. The debate was passionate, but ultimately enough Democrats joined with Republican Senators to defeat two attempts by the panel’s more liberal members to insert public option language into the bill.

Keeping the public option out of the bill was a major victory for Senator Max Baucus, chair of the Finance Committee. While acknowledging that a public option would “hold insurance companies’ feet to the fire,” his opposition was based on the goal of enacting health care reform this year. According to ABC News Senator Baucus believes health care reform including a government-run program cannot pass the Senate.

Senator Jay Rockefeller insisted, however, that a public health insurance plan was absolutely essential to meaningful reform. Failure to to create a public, non-profit plan to compete with private carriers, the Associated Press reports the West Virginia Democrat as saying, “was a virtual invitation to insurance companies to continue placing profits over people, and he predicted they would raise their premiums substantially once the legislation went into effect.”

Senator Baucus countered that the legislation being developed by the Senate Finance Committee includes numerous consumer protections, including a provision to prevent insurance companies denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions. None of the lawmakers on either side of the aisle spent much effort in defending the behavior of private insurance companies. Senator Baucus said he agreed with the intent of the Rockefeller Amendment to “hold the insurance industry’s feet to the fire,” according to the Washington Post. The Associated Press quotes Senator Jim Bunning as observing that “the private sector is not doing exactly what it should do with medical services.”

Republican members of the committee were unanimous in their opposition to public options. The Washington Post quotes the ranking GOP member of the panel, Senator Charles Grassley, as warning that a government plan “will ultimately force private insurers out of business” and that “The government is not a fair competitor. It’s a predator.”

The first public option amendment, offered by Senator Rockefeller, would have permitted the government-run plan to set reimbursements to medical providers at levels paid by Medicare for the first two years. (After that period, I believe the Senators proposal would have permitted the public medical plan to, like Medicare, impose rates on providers). It should be noted, Medicare often pays doctors and hospitals less than the cost they incur providing services. The five Democrats joining with Republican committee members to defeat this amendment were Senators Baucus, Thomas Carper, Kent Conrad, Blanche Lincoln, and Bill Nelson.

Senator Charles Schumer then proposed an amendment that would have required the public plan to negotiate reimbursement rates with providers, much as private carriers do today. Three Democrats – Senators Baucus, Conrad and Lincoln – voted against accepting this amendment.

I’ve maintained for some time that a government-run health plan was unlikely to be part the health care reform plan passed by Congress. The Senate Finance Committee’s rejection of this provision increases the likelihood of this outcome, but the debate will continue. Senator Schumer, for one, pledged to continue the fight. 

"’The present system is broken’" the Washington Post reports him as saying. “He said he was pushing for a public option not for ideological or symbolic reasons but because ‘costs are going through the roof.’ And he expressed confidence that, ‘with some work and some compromise,’  proponents of the provision eventually could get 60 votes on the Senate floor. ‘We are going to get at this, and at this, and at this, until we succeed, because we believe in it so strongly.’"

With polls showing 65 percent of the public support a government-run health plan operating like Medicare to compete with private health insurance plans, President Barack Obama continuing to argue for a public option, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi claiming the House was unlikely the House would pass health care reform that did not include a public option, this debate is far from over. Assuming the Senate Finance Committee moves forward a reform package this week, the next step will be for it to be integrated into the bill passed by the Senate Health, Education and Pensions Committee – legislation that does include a public option.

Getting health care reform is a long hike. Today’s vote in the Senate Finance Committee is a step along the way – albeit a very significant step indeed.

Baucus Introduces America’s Healthy Future Act of 2009

Senate Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus has unveiled his health care reform proposal, the “America’s Healthy Future Act of 2009” in the form of a “Chairman’s Mark.”  This means instead of publishing legislative language, the plan is presented in a “here’s the current law and here’s how we should it” format. While specific legislative language would be nice, there’s enough detail in the 223 page document to get a good understanding of what Senator Baucus proposes. And we won’t have long to wait for the legislative language: the Committee will begin debating the bill on September 22, 2009.

No Republican members of the Senate Finance Committee have signed onto the plan, but I don’t think the lack of GOP support at this point dooms the Baucus proposal. As noted in my previous post, at least one of the three Republicans who has been negotiating with Senator Baucus towards a bi-partisan bill, Senator Olympia Snowe, has indicated she’s waiting to see how the bill is amended in committee before committing her vote. Further, the audience Senator Baucus is directing his health care reform plan to are moderate Democrats.

By directing his plan at moderates, Senator Baucus, not surprisingly, infuriates liberal Democrats. Senator Jay Rockefeller has already announced his opposition to the Chairman’s Mark and claims four-to-six other Democrats on the Finance Committee share his views. There are 23 members of the Senate Finance Committee: 13 Democrats and 10 Republicans. So Senator Baucus can afford to lose only one Democrat and still move his proposal out of the committee in the face of unanimous GOP opposition.

My expectation, however, is that neither President Barack Obama nor Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will let liberals bottle-up the bill in the Finance Committee. If needed, they’ll arrange for some progressive Democrats to speak against the bill, while voting to move it out of committee in order to “let the process proceed.” Of course, if Senator Snowe or any of the other Republicans on the committee vote for the amended bill, fewer Democrats will be needed.

A quick review of the Chairman’s Mark indicates there have been no substantive changes from what was expected. There’s no government-run health plan, it requires individuals to purchase coverage, it establishes state health insurance exchanges. What has been firmed up is it’s price tag: $856 billion over 10 years.

I hope to post more detailed analysis of the America’s Healthy Future Act of 2009 over the next few days, but in the meantime, below are a few articles that summarize the proposal. Senator Baucus describes his proposal in an opinion piece published in the Wall Street Journal today. In reading these keep in mind that what Senator Baucus introduced today is only the beginning. On September 22nd the Senate Finance Committee will convene to debate and amend the bill. The mark-up, as it’s called, will be civil but robust. What emerges from the committee will be different than the Chairman’s Mark.

And that’s just the beginning. The Senate will need to reconcile the Senate Finance Committee’s bill with the legislation put forward by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. The result of that mash-up will then need to be reconciled with whatever health care reform legislation the House approves by a conference committee made up Senators and House members. Then both chambers must approve the resulting compromise legislation.

In other words, there’s a long journey ahead for health care reform. There will be plenty of noise and controversy along the way. The path to reform will be subjected to a multitude of twists and turns. We won’t know how it turns out for another two-to-three months. But with the introduction of the America’s Healthy Future Act of 2009, the health care reform debate takes a big step forward.

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Here’s some articles describing Senator Baucus’ health care reform proposal:

Baucus Unveils $856 Billion Health-Care Legislation” from the Wall Street Journal.

Baucus unveils health care bill” from the Boston Globe.

Baucus Offers Health Plan With No Republican Backing” from Bloomberg.com

“Baucus Introduces $856 Billion Health Care Bill” from the Washington Post.

Baucus Puts Bill In Play” from National Underwriter (my thanks to Dwight Mazonne for identifying this article)

Lack of GOP Support for Baucus Health Care Reform Matters, But Not So Much

After months of trying to craft health care reform legislation that would garner at least some Republican support, Senate Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus appears ready to move forward without GOP support – at least for now. According to the Associated Press, Senator Baucus will release his proposal on Wednesday without any Republican co-sponsor. The media will claim this is a huge setback for Senator Baucus and for President Barack Obama.

Maybe, but I don’t think so. First, there is a possibility at least one Republican will support the legislation when it comes to a vote in committee. Politico.com reports that “Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), who is considered the likeliest Republican to sign onto the bill, said she wants to wait to see how the committee process plays out. “’I am committed to this process,’” Snowe said. “’I want this effort to continue and I am going to work through all these issues and the committee process will advance that as well and we will continue to work together.’” While the other two Republicans working on bi-partisan legislation sounded less upbeat, they have not completely closed the door to supporting bill either.

The second reason the lack of any Republican support may not matter much in the long run is that Senator Baucus’ bill will appeal to Democratic moderates. And while Republican votes would be useful, it is moderate Democrats that hold the key to health care reform. Without the support of most of the members of the Moderate Dems Working Group in the Senate or the Blue Dog Coalition in the House, Congress cannot pass health care reform legislation. There are 18 Democratic Senators who are a part of the moderate group. At least eight of them must support legislation for it to pass. In the House, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 257-to-178, there are at least 52 members of the Blue Dog Coalition. They need at least 13 of them to support reform legislation.

Yes, there are more liberals in Congress than moderates. And some of these liberals are threatening to oppose health care reform that does not meet their litmus test of including a government-run health plan. But it’s much easier for a moderate to oppose health care reform than it is for liberals.

A moderate can stand on the floor and claim the bill is too expensive or involves too much government. Given their districts, this is unlikely to hurt them politically. In fact, it will likely help them in the upcoming election.

For a liberal to oppose one of the most important priorities of the Democratic Party because it doesn’t go far enough is a much tougher message. They must claim that millions of Americans should go without health care coverage because the bill isn’t ideologically pure enough. They must explain why insurance carriers should be permitted to continue to deny coverage to individuals with pre-existing conditions because the legislation doesn’t include a public option. In other words, liberals need to argue that the status quo is better than any reform. That’s not only a tough argument to make, it’s a foolish one.

Senator Baucus would love for Republicans to support his health care reform bill. President Obama would too. But they don’t need Republicans to support the bill. They need moderate Democrats.

Senator Baucus is pitching his proposal to those moderates. If he succeeds and if President Obama can get liberals to vote for what they will perceive is a partial loaf, then health care reform passes. If either fails in their assignment, so does health care reform.

It’s that simple. And that complicated.

History Will Ignore Much of Today’s Health Care Reform Headlines

Living through historical moments can seem far less grandiose than reading about it. In the day-to-day grind of making history the big picture can get lost. Little issues take on huge proportions while overarching themes are hidden in the maelstrom. Historians get to step back, find the threads that build tension, create a narrative, and set-up the pay-off.

So it is – and will be – with health care reform. There have been a lot of distractions. For instance, critics of the Obama Administration have been pounding away at HR 3200, the House version of health care reform legislation. That legislation makes great fodder for 24-hour news channels and partisans across the spectrum. The bill offers something for everyone to demagogue. The fact that, in the end, HR 3200 – America’s Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 – won’t have served as anything more than a lightening rod hardly matters.

The same can be said of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee’s proposal. The Senate HELP Committee’s and the House health care plans gave liberals something to cheer about and conservatives something to attack. My guess is history will show that was its greatest contribution to the debate. Yes, elements of these bills will be included in the legislation that will be signed into law by President Barack Obama later this year. But that’s because there’s always been a broad consensus concerning health care reform. It’s the 25 percent or so of the issue on which there is disagreement that is causing all the ruckus. And at the end of the day, I’ve longed believed it will be moderates who resolve the contentious health care reform issues.

And those moderates are almost ready to make their positions known. Senate Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus has promised to unveil a formal proposal Tuesday or Wednesday. While it’s not certain that any Republican Senators will sign-on to the proposal, what Senator Baucus will propose will be far more moderate than the current alternatives. According to the Associated Press, Senator Baucus and the other five Senators negotiating a bi-partisan bill have made progress on several controversial items, “including health insurance for the poor, restrictions on federal funding for abortions, a verification system to prevent illegal immigrants from getting benefits, and ways to encourage alternatives to malpractice law suits.”

If compromises have been reached on these issues, HR 3200 and the Senate HELP Committee’s proposal will have played an important role. By being the most extreme bill available to critics during August it flushed out their attacks. This, in turn, made it easier for moderates to indentify the hot buttons they needed to address. A Washington Post story describing some of the solutions being developed by the Senate Finance Committee’s so-called “Gang of Six” underscores this. (The Gang of Six are Democratic Senators Baucus, Jeff Bingaman, and Kent Conrad along with Republicans Mike Enzi, Charles Grassley and Olympia Snowe). For example, illegal immigrants will be specifically prevented from obtaining any benefits from the insurance exchanges being contemplated. A government-run health plan – the means leading to a government takeover of health care according to critics – will not be missing from the proposal.

For the past few weeks, Republicans have associated President Obama with HR 3200 and the liberal Senate HELP Committee proposal. Yet he has embraced neither. Instead, he is has set the stage for circling the wagons around whatever moderate proposal emerges from the Senate Finance Committee. And Senator Baucus and the others are working hard to make that possible. For example, President Obama embraced a Bush Administration proposal to permit states to test approaches to medical malpractice reform. According to the Washington Post article, such a provision will be in the Senate Finance Committee’s bill.

Liberal critics of President Obama will accuse him of capitulating to conservatives on many of these issues, especially abandonment of a public option. Conservatives will say he’s proven himself to be a liberal tax-and-spender and government-expander (the proposal is expected to cost around $880 billion over 10 years). In the short term there will be much sound and fury over such issues by both sides. If the compromise health care reform solution put forward by Senator Baucus and his colleagues becomes law, however, history will little note nor long remember such histrionics. (Which, for those paying attention to the clichés in this paragraph would tend to prove that Abraham Lincoln trumps William Shakespeare).

So long as the outcome meets President Obama’s general principles for the health care reform the White House will declare victory. History will relegate talk of death panels, cries of socialism, and demands that government get out of Medicare (along with other government-sponsored programs) to footnotes, if that.

As with any major reforms, history will also likely show that the historic health care bill to come will accomplish less than its critics fear or than its advocates claim while at the same time bringing forward unintended consequences of significant proportion. But those problems will be a challenge for a future Congress and Administration. History, after all, is made one step at a time.