Zenefits’ Problems Real, Not Fatal

Zenefits has hit a rough patch. Given the insults the company’s CEO, Parker Conrad, has heaped upon brokers, the Schadenfreude percolating through the broker community is understandable. Yet declarations of Zenefits’ demise are premature.

Zenefits raised $500 million in May of this year at a valuation of $4.5 billion. At the time, Parker Conrad, Zenefits’ founder and CEO claimed the company was “on track to hit annual recurring revenue of $100 million by January 2016….” That was then.

Now the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Zenefits is falling short of its earlier revenue projection. According to the Journal and Business Insider, through August Zenefits’ revenues came in at closer to $45 million and the $100 million annual revenue figure is likely out-of-reach. In response, Zenefits is reportedly instituting a hiring freeze and imposing pay cuts. The latter step is cited as a reason at least eight executives left Zenefits.

In light of this news, in August or September Fidelity Investments reduced the value of its Zenefits investment by 48% estimating the company was now worth about $2.34 billion. That’s a seismic event: in May Fidelity thought Zenefits was worth $4.5 million. Just five months later Fidelity thinks this was being a tad optimistic … if by “a tad” we mean “$2.16 billion.”

In an interview with Business Insider, Mr. Conrad admits Zenefits is unlikely to keep his promise of earning $100 million this year. However, he claims Zenefits continues to hire (although not as fast as in the past) and is happy with its revenue growth–“more than $80 million of revenue under contract” (which, it should be noted, is not the same as saying “we’ve taken in $80 million so far this year,” but maybe that’s what he meant). Mr. Conrad also asserts Zenefits is getting “closer and closer” to being cash flow-positive, although he doesn’t expect them to get there until 2017 at the earliest.

Missing his $100 million commitment and having to address the subsequent fallout is no doubt adding to Mr. Conrad’s stress levels. Since Mr. Conrad went out of his way to insult community-based benefit brokers on Zenefits way up, the joy brokers are taking in his discomfort now is to be expected—and is arguably earned.

Should brokers assume Zenefits is no longer a threat, however? No. They are still bringing in tens of millions of dollars in revenue. According to what I’ve heard, only about 60% of this revenue comes from commissions. An ever-increasing portion of their revenue flows from fees earned by selling third-party services or their own non-commissioned services. Zenefits launched their own payroll service today so their non-commission revenue will continue to climb. Zenefits may not be worth $4.5 billion any more, but it is still valued at over $2 billion. And while no CEO is happy when a serious investor marks down his company by nearly 50%, Mr. Conrad says Zenefits won’t be out raising money anytime soon. As a practical matter, the impact of the devaluation on Zenefits is minimal.

In short, Zenefits is sticking around.

But I predict Zenefits is in for a rough time. Direct competitors like Namely and Gusto are raising money and stepping up. Community-based brokers are increasingly leveraging technology. Full disclosure: I’m co-founder of the company launching NextAgency, software that will help brokers level the playing field against Zenefits, so I’m delighted to point out this trend.

While new initiatives like their payroll offering will create new revenue streams, they also carry significant risk. Current partners will view Zenefits as a potential competitor. Management will be distracted from the company’s core business. New skills and expertise need to be acquired. There’s something to be said for focus and Zenefits may be losing theirs.

Schadenfreude is German for deriving pleasure from the misfortunes of others. That Zenefits’ current problems generates this impulse in the brokers they’ve insulted should surprise no one. That Zenefits will face challenges, problems and set-backs moving forward is inevitable. That community-based brokers should continue to take the threat Zenefits represents is seriously is wise.