In the end, health care reform may come down to a question of trust: does the House of Representatives trust the United States Senate enough? Yes, majorities in both chambers are comprised of Democrats, but that is far from sufficient. We’re talking about political careers here. We’re talking about overcoming the animosity said to exist between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. We’re talking about politics, fear, egos and legislation that will impact every American along with one-sixth of the nation’s economy. During a recession. In an election year.
This is epic stuff going on here.
Step One: the House passes the Senate’s version of reform – a bill most oppose, but could accept with some changes. Once passed by the House, the legislation would go to the President’s desk for his signature and become law.
Step Two: The Senate passes legislation to make the changes House members (along with Senators and the President) want. These changes would all relate to government spending or taxation, enabling this so-called “side-car” legislation would be passed by through the reconciliation process. In other words, the clean-up bill could be passed by the Senate with 51 votes instead of the super-majority of 60 votes requires for most legislation now days.
Step Three: The House passes the Senate’s side-car bill, sending it on to President Obama for his signature. Taken together, the Senate bill and the clean-up legislation becomes the Democrat’s health care reform package.
The problem is that before they can amend an existing law, that existing law has to exist. Meaning the House has to pass the Senate’s health care reform bill before they know whether the Senate can and will pass the clean-up bill. No one in Washington actually likes the Senate bill as it is chock full of provisions House Democrats neither support nor wish to defend in this election year.
Without complete confidence that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can and will push through the side-car legislation, asking House Democrats to pass the unloved Senate bill (without any support from Republicans) is a huge risk. What if Senate Democrats refuse to enact the remedies House Democrats expect and demand? What if Senate Republicans succeed in blocking passage of the clean-up legislation? A lot can go wrong. Given the only three laws that seem to apply within the beltway (those being the laws of Gravity, Unintended Consequences and the one named after Murphy) something is all but guaranteed to go wrong.
Not surprisingly then, as I’ve talked to legislative staff and others here in Washington a lot of creative thought is being devoted to bridging the trust gap. One rumor was that Speaker Pelosi was demanding that Senator Reid deliver two letters. The first would put in writing his commitment to pass clean-up legislation satisfactory to House Democrats. This letter would also guarantee that the Senate Parliamentarian (who ultimately will decide what provisions can be passed through reconciliation and which can’t) will permit these remedies to be approved with a 51-vote majority under reconciliation rules.
The second letter requested by Speaker Pelosi was rumored to be one signed by 51 Senators pledging their support of the side-car legislation.
If true, the Speaker’s demand for written assurances is highly unusual, to say the least. And not all of the guarantees are within Senator Reid’s power to offer. For example, he has no ability to commit the Senate Parliamentarian to any specific decisions. The Senate Parliamentarian is an independent, non-partisan referee. The current Parliamentarian was appointed by Republicans when they controlled the Senate. No one has questioned his fairness during his service since (although some Republicans are now setting the stage to attack him if any of his decisions work to the advantage of Democrats). Senator Reid cannot control what the Parliamentarian will decide.
Another rumored solution to the Democrat’s dilemma would be one in which the Senate’s health care reform bill would be deemed passed by the House only if the side-car legislation was also passed. In the House, votes are subject to “rules” which specify everything from how much time a measure can be debated to how many amendments may be considered. The theory is that a rule could be passed that would, in essence, make enactment of health care reform clean-up legislation a pre-condition for the vote approving the Senate health care reform bill being considered binding. Or official. Or something. OK, I’m not sure how the rule would be worded, but the goal would be to prevent health care reform from passing without the provisions of the side-car bill also passing.
What to make of all this? First, that Democratic Leaders feel a great sense of urgency to enact health care reform. The longer voters sees Congress struggling through procedural mazes, the less they support the legislation. Some have reported that President Obama has asked to have a bill ready for his signature by Congress’ Easter recess (if he’s going to use holidays as markers I would suggest April Fools Day just to demonstrate the White House still has a sense of humor, but that may just be me. The Associated Press story cited above says the Administration is hoping to see health care reform legislation passed by the end of next week when President Obama is scheduled to start foreign travel.
The second takeaway from all this pretzel-making is that Democrats are anxious to make the legislation more acceptable to the American people. The side-car legislation will contain several provisions put forward by Republicans. It is likely to eliminate the sweetheart deals favoring specific states. Democrats know they’ll be attacked this November if they pass health care reform legislation or if they fail to do so. Given this reality their best strategy is to pass a defensible bill.
What all these rumors also imply is that whether health care reform passes all comes down to whether Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid can trust one another. If they can, health care reform is likely to move forward. If they cannot, health care reform in its current form is most likely doomed.