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So the gloves are now off and rationale debate is about to flee the scene (demonstrations and prayer vigils rarely lend themselves to civil, reasoned discussions). Passing health care reform during the current special legislative session was a tough assignment to begin with. Given Labor’s influence with the Democratic majority, this turn of events virtually eliminates any chance of responsible health care reform any time soon.
Reform is not impossible, however. Governor Schwarzenegger can be one of the most skillful politicians Sacramento has seen in decades (he can also be one of the most clumsy politicians Sacramento has seen in decades, but during the health care reform debate his most artful political persona has been on display). Speaker Fabian Nunez and Speaker Pro Tem Don Perata are no political slouches either. Plus, they would like to see health care reform enacted to help justify the changes to term limits they are seeking on the February 2008 ballot.
Even the Labor coalition has incentives to reach a compromise. They are looking at putting a health care reform initiative on the ballot in 2008 (presumably it would look a lot like Assembly Bill 8, which the Legislature passed and the Governor vetoed). The Governor is threatening to sponsor a competing initiative of his own. Meanwhile business groups and advocates of a government-run single payer system are also considering initiatives. When multiple ballot measures on one topic are put before the voters, historically it’s been easier to defeat all of them than to get any one of them passed (although there are exceptions). So if Labor and their allies aren’t careful they could wind up with no health care reform passing at all and starting over from square one in 2009. That would be squandering not only two years, but all the momentum behind the current reform efforts. And it would be bad news for all those who effective reform could help much sooner if a responsible compromise could be reached.
I was talking to someone today (who prefers to remain anonymous) who pointed out another dynamic in this situation that could make Labor’s position uncomfortable. The unions are supporting employer-centric reforms like AB 8. Governor Schwarzenegger supports an individual-centric approach. Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Governor Bill Richardson are among the Democratic presidential candidates whose health care reform proposals mirror, to some degree, Governor Schwarzenegger’s approach. So all the rhetoric this coalition is aiming at Republican Governor Schwarzenegger may apply just as strongly to Democratic presidential candidate <fill in the blank> come 2008. And the unions will be strong supporters of that nominee.
Politics is politics. Attacking an opponent while praising an ally who has the same position is not uncommon. For all but professional contortionists, however, it’s not a lot of fun either. But that will be then and this is now. For now, positions are hardening and the hope for meaningful health care reform any time soon is growing faint.