Even before President Barack Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law, Republicans in Congress have sworn to repeal it. “Repeal and Replace” became a rallying cry that helped switch 63 House and six Senate seats to the GOP side of the aisle in 2010. Today Republicans have the majority in both chambers of Congress and occupy the White House. the GOP opposition to the ACA is not the only explanation for this pendulum swing, but that opposition was certainly a factor.
Republican votes to repeal the ACA became a Washington staple in the six years after the law’s passage. There’s no official count, but House Republicans may have voted 60 times or more to do away with Obamacare. And why not? With President Obama in the White House they knew their repeal legislation would never become law. Votes to repeal the law were an easy political statement.
Now Republicans hold the power to make repeal real and thing aren’t so easy. The House Republican Leadership, reputedly with input from the White House and Senate Republicans, drafted and put forward the American Health Care Act as the first step in the repeal and replace effort. The AHCA faces an uncertain fate in even in the House of Representatives. And a report by the Congressional Budget Office of the AHCA’s impact on the uninsured, the federal budget, premiums and the affordability of coverage has only narrowed the bill’s path to passage.
Republicans want to keep their promise to repeal Obamacare and fear the political payback if they fail to do so. They know they will own the results of any health care reform they pass. f that result includes higher premiums and fewer insureds, the political price could be both high and painful.
Thus the current Republican civil war. More moderate Republicans worry the AHCA doesn’t do enough to support Medicaid and keep Americans insured. Their conservative counterparts are lining up against the AHCA because they see the bill as creating new entitlements and failing to cut back on Medicaid fast enough. Whether the two sides can be brought together is unknown (although I’m skeptical).
Which leaves Democrats sitting back and enjoying the spectacle of Republican-on-Republican political violence. They’ll occasionally throw a sound bite over the transom keep things interesting and to remind their base that they’re fighting the good fight. Generally, however, Democrats are adhering to adage of avoiding interfering with the enemy when they are in the process of destroying themselves.
This is a dangerous strategy. Politics can take sudden turns and, if they’re not careful, Democrats could find themselves in the same predicament that Republicans are in today.
When attacking the GOP health care proposal, Democrats often recite a mantra along the lines of “Sure, the ACA has some problems. But we shouldn’t repeal the ACA, we should fix it.” But what does that mean? Democrats are as shy about detailing what “retain and repair” means as Republicans have been about defining “repeal and replace.”
History may show Republican’s failure to devise an ACA alternative in the six years following its passage as political malpractice. Their civil war over the AHCA provides Democrats with a window of opportunity to avoid a similar judgment..
Republicans want Democrats to do more than gloat. The Hill reported that Senator John Cornyn challenged Democrats to offer an alternative to the AHCA. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer response: we have and it’s called the Affordable Care Act.
That’s a good line, but that’s all it is. If Republicans fail to pass health care reform, things as they are remains. That status quo is the ACA, a law Democrats admit is flawed and should be fixed. Democrats can claim the high ground by identifying those flaws and offering remedies. Even if Democrats fail to gain Republican support for retain and repair, there’s a value to building a party consensus around a proposal now.
After all, President Donald Trump prides himself as a deal maker. It’s extremely unlikely, but if the AHCA fails, President Trump might look for an alternative and the Democrats should be ready with one. Again, a deal with President Trump is highly unlikely, but these are not likely political times.
Even if the Democratic retain and repair proposal goes nowhere in 2017, it could be useful later. Democrats will need something to run on in 2018. A consensus retain and repair platform might be helpful.
Then there’s the possibility that Democrats are in control of Congress and the White House come 2020. If so, today’s Republicans offer an important lesson. The year you take control of Washington is not the time to start debating a health care reform plan; it’s the time to present one.