ABX1-1 Coming Up Short in Senate Health Committee

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As I posted on January 20th, Senator Yee had expressed strong concerns over the weekend about the state’s ability to afford ABX1-1. Today the Sacramento Bee’s CapitolAlert web site reports an aide to the San Francisco State Senator is confirming he will be vote no on the bill.

It takes six votes to pass a measure through the Senate Health Committee. With its four Republicans members and Democratic Chair, Senator Shiela Kuehl, already inclined to oppose the legislation, ABX1-1 appear to be headed to defeat tomorrow.

But a lot can still happen between now and then. As I speculated in the earlier post, Senator Kuehl could give the bill a “courtesey vote,” to keep it moving, even while pledging to vote “no” on the legislation when it reaches the full Senate. When asked if she’d consider such a gesture, she replied she “can’t answer that,” according to CapitolAlert.

Senator President Pro Tem Perata, who previously expressed concerns similar to those of Senator Yee, but who now appears interested in moving ABX1-1 forward, could restructure the Committee. He’s proven himself capable of such a move in the past, although its rare for a committee’s membership to be shuffled over just one bill. And whether he cares enough about the fate of the legislation to make such a move is questionable.

Anothe scenario: the CapitolAlert post speculates that one of the Republican Senators might vote for ABX1-1. They identify Senator Abel Maldonado of Santa Maria as the most likely suspect. The odds of this are slim, however. Senator Maldonado, although having shown a willingness to buck the party line, has indicated no enthusiasm for ABX1-1 or any similar health care reform packages.

Given normal circumstances, it would appear ABX1-1 will be defeated in the Senate Health Committe tomorrow. But, these are not normal circumstances.

ABX1-1 represents more than a year of negotiations between the legislative leaders and Governor Schwarzenegger. They’re not giving up yet. And there’s an election in  California just two weeks from today. One of the ballot measures, Proposition 93, will determine if the state’s term limits law is changed in a manner which enables Speaker Nunez and Senator Perata to hold onto their powerful posts. Do they really want to kill health care reform so close to that vote?

A lot can happen between now and the Committee’s vote tomorrow evening. And, given this is California and the topic is health care reform, most likely, a lot will happen.